Trend Towards Political Confrontation in Central Asian States Accelerating Since September 11 (by Igor Torbakov) March 26, 2002 The recent violent clashes in Kyrgyzstan illustrate a general trend in Central Asia towards the radicalization of opposition movements. The trend appears to have accelerated since September 11, increasing the risk that troops from the US-led international ant-terrorism coalition, now based in Central Asia, may find themselves caught in the middle of intensifying domestic political conflicts. Kyrgyz authorities say order has returned to the Ak-Sui District, scene of the March 17-18 violence. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. However, regional political analysts believe that the mood is far from calm. President Askar Akayev's government and the political opposition continue to engage in mutual recrimination over responsibility for the clashes. On March 25 Deputy Interior Minister Keneshbek Duishebaev insisted that protesters were the first to open fire during the initial confrontation March 17. State-controlled media has also sought to discredit opposition MP Azimbek Beknazarov, whose arrest in January sparked the chain of events that culminated in the clash. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Beknazarov has accused authorities of a cover-up. A coalition of opposition parties on March 24 issued a statement demanding the resignations of Akayev and other government leaders. For political experts, the clash and its aftermath in Kyrgyzstan mark a watershed in the political development of Central Asian states. Having made no political gains with peaceful methods, government opponents now seem willing to directly confront entrenched authority. "The events in the south of Kyrgyzstan are the first serious and well-organized action against the republican state system," notes Vladimir Yegorov in the Strana.Ru Internet journal. "The protests that occasionally took place before were mainly limited to pickets, and never led to bloodshed, to say nothing of the killing of people." Both the government and opposition agree that the stakes in the unfolding struggle are extremely high. "If Askar Akayev and his entourage retreat, if they start rolling back under the pressure of the opposition, power in the mountainous republic might change hands," notes Vladimir Aleksandrov, a Bishkek-based journalist sympathetic to Akayev, in the Moscow Obshchaya Gazeta weekly. Central Asia's chronic problems - including ecological hazards, growing poverty and population overcrowding - have made the region a breeding ground for radical movements and ideologies, observers say. And some experts say that radical trends have strengthened since September 11. In addition to Kyrgyzstan, political opposition movements in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have also intensified their anti-government campaigns since the start of 2002. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The more confrontational approach adopted by opposition movements, experts add, is largely a response to government attempts to step up repression and tighten control over society. A few observers say that the basing of US troops and other anti-terrorism coalition forces in Central Asian states has emboldened regional leaders, including Akayev and Uzbek President Islam Karimov, to act forcefully to bolster their personal authority. In addition, the rapid increase of Western military and economic aid to Central Asian states since September 11 is encouraging a frenzy of corrupt practices, as competing regional interest groups scramble over new sources of income, analysts say.

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"Repression and corruption have only increased [in the region]," says the Tajik journalist Dodojon Atovullo, who is currently living abroad. "They push people more and more to radical organizations."

While incumbent Central Asian leaders have proven prone to governing in an authoritarian manner, experts caution that opposition leaders may be motivated by personal ambition, and not by a commitment to democratic principles. Aziz Niyazi, a researcher at the Moscow Institute of Oriental Studies, says the apparent political struggle between governments and their opponents can mask a fierce battle among secular ethno-territorial elites over the respective countries' material wealth and natural resources.

This struggle, Niyazi contends, is not a confrontation between opposing ideologies. At the same time, Niyazi adds, participants in this "battle at the top" often attempt to portray their political maneuverings as a dramatic clash between "post-communists" and "democrats."

"When they get their slice of the pie, the opposition leaders make a quick about face and turn into conformists," Niyazi says. He concedes, however, that the general pattern does not exclude the possibility of the emergence of a genuine democratic opposition that would confront all the wrangling oligarchic clans.

Also present in the Central Asian political landscape are various radical Islamist movements, which represent a true nonconformist force, commentators say. These groups' social base is rather wide. Analysts add that Islamic radical movements are so far the only socially oriented forces to emerge that seek to define a new regional developmental path. Even so, the Islamists' vision is, in the words of the political scientist Niyazi, "rather vague" and their methods "too radical" to attract a huge following. The political attitudes of the supporters of the "Islamist order" may serve as an indicator of "what can or cannot be acceptable for the traditional society caught in the process of [forced] modernization," Niyazi concludes.

Recent developments in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are examples of the type of regional conflict in which opposition movements can mount a serious challenge to authority. Since the local population is more or less receptive toward liberal-democratic slogans in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, says Karin Yerlan, director of the Central Asian Agency of Political Research, vigorous opposition political activity that enjoys some popular backing may be able to force the governments to share power.

The methods employed by the opposition in trying to loosen the incumbent leadership's grip on power can vary, and include such tactics as pushing for early elections, or advocating constitutional amendments. [For background about Kazakhstan see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Within the framework of this scenario, opposition parties and movements will act as agents of destabilization, using protest actions, independent mass media and the Internet to challenge governmental control.

In Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, analysts argue, liberal ideas do not find a wide audience among the general population. Thus, the development of a "negative scenario" in these countries might be fueled by extremist attitudes. Radicals might stir the local population into mass riots against their rulers. In this case, the radical Islamist groups will be the chief instrument of destabilization.

Many regional analysts believe that, due to their incompetence, mismanagement and brutal handling of political opponents, Central Asian authorities are prodding various segments of the political opposition into ever more radical actions.

"It turns out that only from a position of strength can you talk to officials - that's the only way you will get through to them," the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper in Kyrgyzstan said in a March 22 commentary about the Ak-Sui confrontation.

"We should not be under the misconception that it was only because of Azimbek Beknazarov that people turned out to confront the police," the newspaper continued. "He [Beknazarov] was just a pretext - the last straw for ordinary people who have accumulated discontent over authorities' neglect of social problems."

Editor's Note: Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist and researcher who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. He was Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 1988-1997; a Visiting Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC, 1995, and a Fulbright Scholar at Columbia University, New York, 2000. He is now based in Istanbul, Turkey.