A Resource of the Asia Society
Asia Source
Arts and CultureBusiness and EconomicsPolicy and GovernmentSocial Issues

Opinion Survey Report and Analysis
by William Watts
President, Potomac Associates

April 2002

D. South-North Relations and Korean Domestic Affairs

1. "Sunshine Policy." Our questioning found broad support for efforts to try to improve ties with North Korea. We deliberately did not link the issue to President Kim Dae Jung by name, to avoid personalizing and/or polarizing the thinking of respondents. Rather, we asked:

"Let's look at South-North relations. Do you support or oppose the "Sunshine Policy" of trying to improve ties with North Korea?"

Strongly support31%
Somewhat support63%
Somewhat oppose4%
Strongly oppose2%

By keeping President Kim's name out of the equation, it may have been easier to support the policy in general terms: better than nine in 10 said they either "strongly support" (roughly three in 10, and half of government and public officials, and representatives of NGOs) or "somewhat support" (six in 10, and all in the business world) the "Sunshine Policy."

When the two "support" categories are combined, they include all politicians, government and public officials, business community, NGOs, the military, and women. Few respondents said they were "somewhat" or "strongly opposed." The single standout category was in academia, among whom one-quarter expressed opposition.

This suggests that, no matter how inflamed national feelings can get over President Kim's handling of his "Sunshine Policy," there appears to be broad support for pursuing the basic goal of South-North reconciliation. That support carries a cautionary note: a majority was only "somewhat" aligned with the policy. Overall, however, such support represents a platform that will be welcomed by any future leader.

2. Conditionality. On a related theme, we found opinion split down the middle between whether Seoul "should insist on stricter conditions in its negotiations with North Korea (49%)," or whether "negotiations are being handled in about the right manner (51%)." A slightly larger proportion of those in the business community, military, and academia favored "stricter conditions," roughly matched by larger numbers of NGOs and women who found the current situation about right.

Among those respondents who favored added conditions, a few themes attracted attention:

  • setting up a permanent meeting place for separated families;
  • reciprocity (a theme mentioned frequently);
  • separation of economics and politics;
  • transparency in North Korea (also mentioned by several);
  • humanitarian aid linked to nuclear and biological weapons transparency;
  • human rights in North Korea; and,
  • North Korea must fulfill its promises (presumably, another shade of reciprocity).

3. Prospects for Unification. When we asked, "Looking ahead, how do you rate prospects for unification in the next ten years?," we did not find widespread optimism, broad support for the "sunshine policy"notwithstanding:

Very likely5.9%
Somewhat likely23.5%
Somewhat unlikely60.8%
Very unlikely5.9%
Don't know3.9%
[Very/somewhat likely]29.4%
[Very/somewhat unlikely]66.7%

Only about three in 10 saw unification as "very" or "somewhat likely," and most of them were in the latter category. When both "likely" choices were combined, roughly half of the NGOs, women, and the younger age cohort chose one of those options.

The military was the most pessimistic among the two-thirds of our sample who thought unification to be either "very" or "somewhat unlikely:" all the military respondents opted for one alternative or the other. And with the exception of female respondents, at least half of every professional category was of the view that unification was, at best, "somewhat unlikely."

Given the roller-coaster ride that has characterized past South-North discussions, this overall pessimism does not seem out of line. And as the campaign against terrorism being waged by the Bush administration moves ahead - with North Korea labeled, along with Iran and Iraq, as an "axis of evil" supporting terrorism - prospects look ever dimmer.

4. Levels of personal satisfaction. We asked our sample:
"Overall, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Korea these days?"

Very satisfied-
Somewhat satisfied8%
Somewhat dissatisfied70%
Very dissatisfied22%

The responses were remarkable in the extent of their negativity: not one person put him/herself in the "very satisfied" column, and; less than one in ten was even ready to say even "somewhat satisfied."

a. Positives. Among the very few who did say "somewhat satisfied," slightly better readings (but still only one in four) were recorded by government and public officials (some of whom pointed to economic recovery, and a rooted democratic system), and military personnel (who cited Korea's ability to ride out financial turmoil).

b. Negatives. On the down side, better than nine in ten felt "somewhat" or "very dissatisfied." In the "somewhat" section were all politicians, and almost all business people. Among problems cited: "political backwardness," "lack of leadership," "widespread corruption," "erosion of the nation's authority and dignity," and "arbitrary policy-making." "Very dissatisfied" included half of those from academe and nongovernmental organizations, who pointed to "lack of policy vision," "corruption," "absence of leadership," "wasteful partisan confrontation," and "lost national identity." One NGO representative lamented, 'There is no bright future anywhere, so I am disappointed and feel hopeless."

It is worth noting that all respondents from politics, business, media and the press, NGOs, and women were in the negative column; none said they were even "somewhat satisfied." Other problem themes mentioned included: "laxity of social discipline," "intensified regionalism," "failure of reformation," "President Kim Dae Jung's lame duck syndrome," "growing gap between rich and poor," "no common goals," "moral corruption and laxity of official discipline," and "disproportionate distribution of important social posts."

5. Politics. When respondents were asked to single out, voluntarily and without any cuing from the interviewer, current domestic political problems, two areas stood out: politics are too regional, and they are too personalized and boss-oriented. Most observers would agree that these factors dominate the political scene.

"Thinking about domestic political conditions in Korea, which of the following do you think is the most important problem?" (listed in order of importance)

Politics are too regional41.2%
Politics are too personal/boss-oriented31.4%
There is too much corruption15.7%
The political system is too authoritarian7.7%
Egoism2.0%
Absence of just authority; disorder2.0%

"And what is the second most important problem"

Politics are too personal 31.4%
Politics are too regional 31.4%
The political system is too authoritarian19.6%
There is too much corruption 13.6%
Distrust of politics; ignorance2.0%
Lack of consistence2.0%

[First and second most important problems, combined]

Politics are too regional 72.6%
Politics are too personal/boss-oriented 62.8%
There is too much corruption 29.3%
The political system is too authoritarian 27.3%
Egoism2.0%
Absence of just authority;disorder2.0%
Distrust of politics; ignorance2.0%
Lack of consistency in policy2.0%

On the issue of regionalism, some analysts speculate that television may, over time, dampen its influence. But as of this writing, it remains a powerful - even overriding - factor, engendering the sense of hopelessness expressed above by the NGO representative.

6. Economics. Lack of transparency and corruption were volunteered as the principal culprits on the economic scene, in proportions quite similar as those for regionalism and boss-orientation in the political arena:

"And what about the Korean economy? Which of the following do you think is the biggest problem?" (listed in order of importance)

There is not enough transparency51.0%
As with politics, there is too much corruption27.5%
The chaebols are too strong11.8%
Banks and financial institutions need more regulation3.9%
Ineffective policy2.0%
Lack of changes to value-added industry2.0%
Absence of high tecnologyr2.0%

"And what is the second biggest problem?"

As with politics, there is too much corruption31.4%
There is not enough transparency25.5%
Banks and financial institutions need more regulation21.6%
The chaebols are too strong15.7%
Economy is too centralized2.0%
Excessive dependency on single country2.0%
Closed economic structure2.0%

[First and second most important problems, combined]

There is not enough transparency76.5%
As with politics, there is too much corruption58.8%
The chaebols are too strong27.5%
Banks and financial institutions need more regulation25.5%
Economy is too centralized2.0%
Ineffective policy2.0%
Lack of changes to value-added industry2.0%
Absence of high tecnologyr2.0%
Excessive dependency on single country2.0%
Closed economic structure2.0%

A sense that the chaebols (the hugely powerful economic conglomerates that have dominated the Korean economic scene for decades) are too strong, and that banks and financial institutions need more regulation, drew the attention as first- or second-ranked problems by about one in four. Some of the other problem areas we were looking for - the economy is too centralized, closed economic structure, and the like - attracted little notice.

7. Courts and the legal system. In what may come as a surprise to some readers, we found ratings given to courts and the legal system were relatively high.

"Thinking about courts and the legal system, do you think they are:"

Very fair and even-handed2.0%
Somewhat fair and even-handed60.8%
Somewhat unfair and not too even-handed33.3%
Very unfair and not at all even-handed3.9%
[Very/somewhat fair and even-handed]62.8%
[Very/somewhat unfair and not even-handed37.2%

By about a two-thirds to one-third split, respondents said courts and the legal system were either "very fair and even-handed" or "somewhat fair and even-handed," as opposed to "very" or "somewhat unfair" and "not at all even-handed." The most positive views were held by government and public officials, all of whom were in the positive column. Least favorable marks were recorded by members of the press and media, and by those in the younger cohort, 30-39 years of age.

8. Hope for the future. By any reckoning, a good deal of what we found represents a disheartening reading of the mood and feelings of our particular sample of opinion. But that sense of unease is at least partially offset by positive expressions about sources of strength for the nation's future:

"Overall, what do you think is the most positive or hopeful aspect of our country?" Themes cited include:

  • Politicians: "domestic desires for reform," "well-educated population," "nation's diligence," and "Koreans are hard-working and energetic."
  • Government: "democratization," "rising international stature," "resolve to overcome crises," and "excellent human resources."
  • Business: "highly-educated labor force," "growth of middle class," "national creativity," and "high intelligence."
  • Academia: "enthusiasm for education," "energetic young people," and "human resources."
  • Media: "human resources," "conscientious youth," "hard-working, intelligent people," and "vitality of Korean society."
  • NGOs: "spontaneous initiative," "youth's cultural originality," and "growth of participatory democracy."
  • Military: "educational fever is hope for the future," "united people," and "maintenance of cultural tradition."

These are strong expressions of hope - and confidence - for the future. It is a rich mixture, combining elements of respect for education, national and personal diligence, intelligence and creativity, strong human resources, and weighty trust and faith in Korea's young people. All this represents a broad and sturdy base on which to build.














Copyright © . Asia Society. All rights reserved. Please click here for legal restrictions and terms of use applicable to this site and Asia Society's Privacy Policy.