Opinion Survey Report and Analysis
by William Watts
President, Potomac Associates

April 2002

Our survey of 51 Korean men and women 30-49 years of age, representing a variety of professional occupations, presents a snapshot of opinion on a substantial range of key issues. Principal views can be summarized below, with further elaboration in the text that follows.

A. General Regional View

1. The United States ranks first in expressions of positive, as opposed to negative, personal feelings (although with reservations), followed closely by China. Japan and, especially, Russia lag far behind.

2. Levels of trust in the United States are considerably higher than those expressed for China. Once again, Japan and Russia trail by a large margin.

3. Looking ahead 10 years, a majority sees links with China assuming greater importance than those with the U.S. A larger majority sees Korea-China ties becoming closer in the future than they are now. On the other hand, wide majorities believe Korea's ties with the United States will be more important ten years out than those with either Japan or, more so, with Russia.

B. Relations with the United States

4. A substantial majority believes the United States is the principal beneficiary in the bilateral U.S.-ROK relationship. At the same time, overwhelming majorities cite security ties as the most important benefit to Korea in these ties, followed by economic links.

5. When asked to pinpoint the "biggest problems in relations with the United States," respondents voice a litany of complaints. A random sampling includes: arrogance; unilateralism; Pax Americana" and "hegemonism;"excessive economic pressure; cultural insensitivity; "flunkeyism" and Korean dependency; impact of U.S. military presence (most wanting U.S. forces reduced gradually, quickly, or altogether, after unification); and aggressive U.S. policies that heighten South-North tensions.

6. A near-majority believes anti-Americanism is growing; a considerably larger majority does not see it as overly threatening to Korea-U.S. ties.

7. A two-to-one majority voices opposition to deployment of U.S. anti-missile defense facilities on Korean soil.

8. Mirroring this reserve, three-in-four favor only limited support to the Bush Administration's war on terrorism, specifically not to include military involvement.

C. Relations with Neighbors

9. Japan is faulted on two particular counts: failure to atone adequately for its past behavior, and its potential reemergence as a military power/threat.

10. China is seen, overwhelmingly, as "primarily a market and economic opportunity," rather than a "potential military threat, with expansionist interests toward Korea." While a majority also sees Russia in this light, a substantial minority registers concern about Russia's threat potential.

D. South-North Relations and Korean Domestic Affairs

11. More than nine in ten support "the 'Sunshine policy' of trying to improve ties with North Korea."

12. Despite that support, most judge the likelihood of unification in the next ten years as "somewhat" or "very unlikely."

13. There is widespread dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs in the Republic of Korea. More than nine in ten are either "very" or "somewhat dissatisfied with the way things are going these days."

14. On the political front, regionalism and boss-oriented politics are the principal causes of concern.

15. In the economic arena, lack of transparency and corruption are seen as the main problems.

16. Looking to the future, widespread hopes are placed with: democratization; national and personal diligence; educated and dynamic human resources; and trust and faith in Korea's young people

17. A large majority rates the courts and the legal system as "fair and even-handed," rather than the opposite.

E. Overall Assessment

This is, on balance, a cautious, pragmatic - and sobering - evaluation of the current state of affairs on the Korean peninsula, and of major issues that face policy makers in Seoul and Washington, DC. Representatives of the emerging generation of Korean leaders we interviewed see a number of things that provide hope and encouragement for the future. They also find a lot lacking both on the home front, and in relations with their key ally, the United States. Attitudes toward Japan remain heavily clouded by the heavy hand of history. Such negativism stands in sharp contrast to the positive and, for the longer term, hopeful look they cast toward their giant neighbor, China.

Overall, one senses a widespread feeling among these Koreans of domestic unease, ameliorated by clear areas of hope for the future. Looking outward, they indicate concerns about being taken for granted, of being relegated to a kind of second-class status where they find themselves subject to the whims of a Pax Americana, playing second fiddle to Japan, and exposed to political and economic subordination. This weighs heavily on a proud and intensely nationalistic people, lending itself to a perception of growing anti-Americanism. With such feelings, a "China card" increases in value.

This is not to say that all the criticisms are automatically valid. But in a relationship as important and intense as is the one that exists between the United States and the Republic of Korea, it is certainly in the interests of both partners to give those expressions of concern appropriate attention. While there are many positive building blocks already in place and ready to be expanded upon, there are also a number of anxieties and warning signals that merit thoughtful consideration.