Opinion Survey Report and Analysis
by William Watts
President, Potomac Associates

April 2002

I. Introduction and Background

During a three week period in November and December, 2001, Gallup Korea, a leading survey research organization based in Seoul, interviewed 51 Korean citizens, 30-49 years of age, who show promise of assuming positions of leadership in the Republic of Korea in years ahead. The following pages set forth the findings of these survey interviews, accompanied by analysis and interpretation of their meaning. Views expressed are those of the author, and do not reflect positions of the National Defense University or the Department of Defense.

This project was initiated by Dr. James Przystup, senior fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) of the National Defense University (NDU), located at Fort Lesley J. McNair in Washington, DC. Dr. Przystup approached this writer, inquiring as to the feasibility of launching a study project, funded by NDU, seeking the views of a group of younger Koreans who might qualify as "next generation leaders." Contact was initiated with prospective survey organizations in Korea, and we decided to work with Gallup Korea, with whom the writer had earlier professional contact.

In discussions with Dr. Przystup and his colleague Captain Gerald W. Faber, senior military fellow at INSS, it was recognized that the task of generating the kind of survey sample we wanted would not be easy. It was also clear that the limited size of the sample - limited to about 50, because of budgetary constraints - would preclude rigorous statistical comparisons, and discussions of margins of error. A review of available survey research also uncovered no comparable earlier material: to the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort of its kind, meaning no time line comparisons were possible. Rather, we have looked for broad indicators and patterns of thinking on a range of policy-oriented issues. By drawing out the thinking of potential future leaders, we hope to provide reactions, impressions, and warning signals of use to those who make and/or influence policy.

II. The Survey Questionnaire: Design and Sample

In designing the survey instrument, and developing the survey sample, we benefitted from the advice of many individuals, both here and in Korea. We were greatly helped by an extended conference discussion in Washington with: James Delaney, consultant, Institute for Defense Analyses; William Drennan, United States Institute of Peace; Robert F. Grealy, JP Morgan Chase, Inc.; and Joseph Winder and Peter Beck, Korea Economic Institute. In the course of a preparatory trip to Seoul in late September 2001, the author was given excellent cooperation by Scott Snyder, the Asia Foundation's representative in Korea. He was particularly helpful in identifying prospective respondents. Steven Rounds, Minister for Public Affairs at the American Embassy, gave useful advice. Newly-arrived Ambassador Thomas Hubbard lent his warm endorsement to the effort. The author spent a full day at Gallup Korea, meeting with M. I. Park, president, I. K. Kang, director of international studies, and his associate J. H. Hong. The discussions were invaluable in sharpening the survey and putting the questionnaire in a context with which Korean respondents would be most comfortable. Final drafting was greatly assisted by an extended discussion held at the National Defense University with a number of Korean affairs specialists, drawn from several U.S. government agencies.

Interviewing was carried out by Gallup personnel, both in person and by telephone, with follow-up where respondents looked for clarification. The final list of persons interviewed was drawn from several sources: the Asia Foundation; the American Embassy; Korea Stock Exchange listings; National Assembly members; various newspaper and website listings; Gallup Korea's own extensive database; and personal contacts. The final sample consisted of 44 men and 7 women, 30-49 years of age, broken down as follows: political figures (8, evenly divided between members of the ruling New Millennium Democratic Party and the opposition Grand National Party); government and other public officials (8); members of the business community (9); individuals from the academic community (8); media and press figures (8); representatives of non-governmental organizations (NGOs, 6); and military (4). Interviews were carried out almost entirely in the larger Seoul metropolitan area. Respondents were guaranteed anonymity. Gallup reported a high degree of cooperation, and quick readiness of respondents to be included in the project.

As already noted, the size of the sample means that our findings must be viewed as indicative and impressionistic. In the absence of any comparable previous efforts of this kind, time line analyses are not possible. Nonetheless, we believe that the views expressed by this group of younger Koreans, selected because they have demonstrated promise of future advancement to positions of leadership, warrant serious and respectful consideration.