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Opinion Survey Report and Analysis
by William Watts
President, Potomac Associates
April 2002
Preface
This project grew out of a research proposal written in February 2000. That proposal focused on the subject of generational change in the Republic of Korea, and its implications for the United States-Korea relationship, in particular the U.S.-ROK alliance. The theme of the proposal extended to a wide range of issues which will confront the generation (age 35-50) now coming into positions of political, economic, and military influence and leadership.
During the Cold War, presidents of the Republic of Korea had emerged from the ranks of the military. Now, for over a decade, the political life of democratic Korea has revolved around the fortunes of the "Three Kims" - Kim Dae Jung, Kim Young Sam, and Kim Jong Pil. This meant that for over four decades the views and political inclinations of the leadership of the Republic of Korea were relatively well known to United States policy makers. Kam Dae Jung's election not only consolidated democracy but also marked the end of a political generation.
During the term of Korea's next president, 2003-2008, a new generation will make the transition into power. The next generation will be faced with a number of defining policy challenges. Internally, it will have to deal with the reform, restructuring, and opening of South Korea's economy. Externally, it will have to deal with North Korea and the post-post-Cold War pattern of international relations evolving in Northeast Asia. It will also be faced with critical decisions affecting the future of the U.S.-ROK alliance, in particular the U.S. force presence in a reconciling or unifying peninsula.
U.S. policy makers and analysts in the West know very little about the next generation in the ROK, and how it thinks about the world, the future of the Republic of Korea, and its challenges and opportunities, both domestic and international. Over the life of the next generation, we should expect the unexpected to take place on the peninsula. This makes it even more important to begin to understand how the next generation might react.
In fact, reality in the form of the historic June 2000 South-North Summit in Pyongyang far outpaced any time line I had considered when I wrote the study proposal in February 2000. While the dynamic from that Summit has stalled out over the past eighteen months, the fact that it happened underscores the need to look ahead, think the unthinkable, and being to understand how such developments will affect the peninsula, the Republic of Korea, and the U.S.-ROK relationship.
Preface by Dr. James Przystup
Senior Fellow, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University
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